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CNN: Iowa Farm Investor

Geesh, Deja Vu, I seriously remember CNN having something almost EXACTLY like this when I got out of college about 10 years ago.... I remember talking about this with my brothers as another tiny nugget of knowledge on why I wanted land back then. They actually talked about ag-land and hunting ground combined on CNN about 10 years ago. And interestingly... thankfully I was RIGHT in my decision to buy land back then but DANG was I wet-behind-the-ears and I considered myself pretty educated on LAND & investing in it back then. Be careful BUT yes, in the long run, what a great investment. I still say you need to be very cautious, especially with ag-ground right now being at RECORD HIGHS. Again, can be a tremendous investment and I'd buy more of the "right" ground tomorrow BUT dang this makes me a LITTLE nervous... For example.... TINY tid-bit... The guys on this video, I'd bet anything are makin their calculations based on CURRENT grain prices: production x grain prices = rent potential. Yes, they probably looked at it deeper BUT just by that video it didn't appear so and we always need to keep in mind there's a giant crowd that's on fire and in an insane frenzy because of these grain prices. Grain prices go to the SAME levels as 5 years ago (that's not that CRAZY to have happen) and we're in a whole new world!!..... BIG TROUBLE with rent, ground prices, psychological impact to investors, new farmers, etc. In short term (2-8 years let's say) I can't imagine we won't have a correction at a minimum (hopefully it isn't a spiral downward BUT look at what's happened numerous times with stock market in last 15 years- major frenzy followed by spiral down). NO ONE has a crystal ball- not even the "experts". I'll still buy my Rec ground at discounts but all this makes me nervous, even though I have a lot of ag ground. "Be cautious when others are greedy and greedy when others are cautious" like I've quoted from wise investors who I agree with many times on here. The last 2 cents I'm throwing in tonight! :)
 
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Yeah, I think the prices are nuts and driven by the grain markets that are showing some corrections as of late.

Right now though, interests rates are VERY low and some farmers have a fair amount of cash on hand to pay down the mortgage. IF they plan to continue farming for ten or twenty years, who knows when ground in their area will come up for sale? So sometimes "location, location, location" that the city realtors always talk about applies for farm ground as well (close to the farmers existing properties).

Today's Corridor Business Journal article:
Iowa farmland value increased 32.6 percent in past year[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
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The Land Trends and Value Survey, presented by the Iowa Farm and Land Chapter No. 2 Realtors Land Institute, reported a statewide average increase of cropland values of 32.6 percent for the year from Sept. 1, 2010, to Sept. 1 of this year. This follows an average increase of 8.5 percent for the previous year.[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
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Farmland, timber and pasture land in our markets continue to be in great demand, according to Tom Marcus, a real estate agent with Ruhl Farm&Land, a division of Ruhl&Ruhl Realtors.[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
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"High quality cropland is in the most demand; but there is very little for sale," he said in a press release. "The demand for this type of land has caused the sale prices and land rent to skyrocket. If a farmer wants to continue to farm he or she has to have land to plant crops on or they are forced out of business. Prices for corn and soybeans have increased this year to where farmers can afford to pay more for rent and the purchase of land."[FONT=&quot][/FONT]
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The survey attributed the increase to several factors, including strong commodity prices, favorable long-term interest rates, limited amount of land offered for sale, lack of alternative investments, higher livestock prices and fear of inflation. [FONT=&quot][/FONT]
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For the survey, participants are asked to estimate the average value of farmland as of Sept. 1. These estimates are for bare, unimproved land with a sale price on a cash basis. Pasture and timberland values were also requested as supplemental information. All nine Iowa crop reporting districts showed an increase. [FONT=&quot][/FONT]
 
When it happens, some investors and landowners will get hurt. This has already happened in MN. Rec ground and lakeshore was on "fire" a few years ago, now it is correcting big time. Lots of foreclosures on lake homes and cabins in Northern MN, and very few buyers.

Actually, the lending practices have hurt lakeshore, it takes 20-25% down to buy a cabin now. Very little chance of a home equity loan, who has that much cash sitting around?

Farm ground is next, if grain prices go down, and interest rates will go up...count on it.
 
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