I have written several times here about this, FWIW. This subject is near and dear to me.
We have also seen a dramatic reduction in turkey pops over the years. I would say the drop started about 15'ish years ago. I have long suspected bobcats, at least to a degree, since the decline of the turkey pops coincided perfectly with the rise in bobcat numbers AND we used to find dead, adult turkey carcasses that had been cleaned up by something hungry.
I have had multiple conversations over the years with DNR personnel, et al, and they steadfastly maintain that it isn't due to bobcats...because of some study conducted 20'ish years ago, etc, that showed few, perhaps no, turkeys in the stomachs of harvested cats. I think the study is flawed though because they only examined stomachs from cats taken in the open trapping/hunting season in Pennsylvania I think it was. Whatever, if you think a cat isn't going to hunt and kill a bird, you aren't using your big thinker...IMO.
Now then, do bobs catch enough turks to severely drop their population? Hmmm...maybe, maybe not. I do feel like turks are particularly vulnerable to potential cat predation in the late winter time v. say, fall, when there are still plenty of YOY rabbits, squirrels and mice to catch if you are a hungry bob. (Another weakness of the referenced study, IMO.)
Although I know that coons, possums, skunks, etc, can and do destroy whole nests at a time and yes, their pops are generally higher these days due to lower fur prices and less trapping/hunting, etc. However, we have trapped the crap out of these nest raiders in our neighborhood over the past few years and then have seen better turk populations following that. So, I too am persuaded that reducing predators will help...but...our pops are still WELL below the "good ol' days".
So...in addition to the above mentioned factors, I suspect some sort of disease and/or chemical influence TOO. (I really think this is a complex, as in multiple variables, situation, not just ONE thing in isolation that is holding turk pops down from where they once were. Although I don't think I have ever sprayed an insecticide on my farm, herbicides = yes, I see far fewer grasshoppers, and such, these days as to 15+ years ago. For sure, the problem is widespread and not limited to Iowa and northern MO.
I would love to see it change back so I can take my grandkids turkey hunting and have them hear and see many gobbling toms, etc.
