There’s 2 predominant strains that have hit us & there’s a 3rd “newer one”. There is technically 8 strains of EHD & BT now.
Here’s my thoughts.... what we saw wipe out places like warren county was the 2nd predominant strain. It’s lethal far faster than the other predominant strain. Now, places like lucas county for example (or warren) have had 3-5 hard hitting EHD/BT wipe outs (large death #’s) in the last 20 years now. Warren may have peaked this year but most other surrounding counties still had worst in 2012 of any other recorded time. SO..... BOTTOM LINE to make this short... IMO & wishful thinking..... the herds have been exposed to both predominant strains multiple times now. There almost has to be antibodies & some immunity being built. Much like down south. I’m hopeful we are on the downward side of a bell curve of death. 2012 being peak. Hopeful. A 3rd predominant strain could be the wild card. Personally, Just opinion- we will slowly see outbreaks lesson over time to severity. Instead of 50 or 75% kills - a bad outbreak might get 20% for example.
There’s non-symptomatic carriers of the virus. Cattle are great carriers of the virus waiting for the midge to bite & transmit it. Because most cattle don’t die & often don’t even look sick. Can get bit over and over and over.... I’m not sure how long the virus stays active? But- with enough new cattle being moved around - it’s like any disease- it starts with an animal carrying that virus & the midge then transmits it. Another midge bites the newly infected animal - then bites another - it’s transmitted. And so on.... “outbreak” has started to roll.
So- dunno if virus is in animals now & will hold over. I suppose it almost has to be. Think of it like the flu though. Just spread a different way. U & I don’t have flu right now but we know by season - a break out of flu virus will be here yearly. Our best hope is deer build resistance & antibodies like they have down south.