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Draw Odds

Zim

Zim

Active Member
We applied for our zone 5 archery tags today. I calculated we'd have about a 25% chance of drawing with no points. Anyone else try to figure odds?
 
I was told that there are 546 bowhunters with points for zone 5. There are only 525 bowhunting tags available. My thought is that not all 546 will be able to go. But if these numbers are correct the odds are not very good.
 
Wow, 546, that surprises me. Where did you get that stat? I thought the percentage of bow tags was supposed to be about the same amount as they actually get apply (30%). 546 would be 36%. That's the diference between a 25% chance and 0% if you're applying for archery. If this is true, a guy applying for a zone 5 gun tag would have a good chance of drawing with zero points.

As there will be 1,013 guys with points from zone 5 that would mean the bow point holders will account for 546 applications and the gun 467. That surprises me.
 
I thought a preference point is a preference point...I had two friends put in for unit 4 last year, got their points and now put in for unit 5.

That throws the statistics into a quagmire to figure out. Alot of people thought their preference point was a sure tag, but I don't figure it that way. Especially for bowhunters.
 
I'd like to get my hands on the detailed stats for both 2000 and 2001 to do some figuring on this. There will certainly be some manipulating possible for a flexible hunter. I expect to get my Iowa bonus point and draw Kansas archery. Points should mean tags in zone 5. Good luck.
 
If you apply one year for a certain zone and apply the next for a different zone, are your points still carried with you or are they zeroed out and you start all over? What about if you apply for bow one year and gun one year?
 
Zim, The 546 number was given to me by an outfitter in Iowa. He said that he has the numbers from all the zones. My understanding is that a point can be used for bow or shotgun and can be used in a different zone than where it came from. If all of this is correct it would be almost impossible to figure chances. I guess we only have to wait another two weeks or so anyway..
 
With the stats you's certainly be able to figure on trends, like where there are a higher percentage of NR.
 
The numbers Rack101 quotes have assumed that all hunters with preference points will apply again in the same zone for the same weapon type. (However, your preference point is good for applying in any zone with any weapon type.)

I compiled all the numbers as the DNR does not provide this info.

In future years the NR hunters that are on top of the system will learn how to play the odds to get a current year tag or to be assured of a preference point only in order to plan a hunt the following year.

If you have any questions regarding the numbers feel free to contact me.

DC
 
Has anyone else recieved a rejection notice? When will the official notices for those accepted be mailed?
 
Anyone know where I can see a map of the zones? It would be easier to understand these threads if we knew where you guys were applying for. Thanks. Maggs.
 
Zim, Sorry to hear that. I havent received anything yet. I hope the mail is not slower here in NY. What state are you from?
 
Rack101, You can click on anyone's profile to see where they are from. I live in Indiana. Should draw Kansas anyway.
 
I just found out a buddy of mine who had zero points drew zone 5 archery this year! Sounds pretty amazing given the above stats.

Anyway we did draw Kansas archery tags so that is not a half bad consolation prize. Arrowed a 130 class is 2 days there last year. Will also be headed for New Mexico in September for some archery elk & rifle deer.
 
Zim, I also know some one who drew zone 5 with no points. they had applied hoping for points for next year. I would like to see the numbers for how many applied with and without points.
 
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