So if you had an opportunity to buy the great neighbor's riverbottom ground and prevent a new potential rotten neighbor for $3k/acre would you do it?
Anyone who answers honestly says yes.
. Anyone who’s looked at land prices is also probably buying it over the phone too
It’s a myth that ground prices always go up. Trophybluf above is spot on.
Rec ground rises & retreats with the economy. A lot of guys have lost money when they needed to sell in a down market. Housing, land, real estate in general. & yes, farmers who got aggressive in 2012-2013…. When commodities dropped in HALF in 2015-ish…, the portion of guys who couldn’t handle the losses - lost their butts. Lost $ on land. Saw it all over. Didn’t see it a lot in N iowa but a bit. Southern 1/3rd of state - absolutely. It’s always a portion of the pie that gets in trouble. In any market. Guys who pay cash or hang on will always be fine of course. But those with a lot of debt & declining incomes- the storm always comes. Echo above- u just don’t know when.
This discussion & cycle literally could go back to biblical days of years of feast & then famine. The ups & downs of agriculture, cattle, etc…. Input costs, droughts, floods, low commodity prices…. On & on…. Why most smart farmers set stuff aside when they have “3 good years” (if they do) …. Cause I assure u- the years of NO PROFIT & LOSING $ do happen on the average farms. Maybe not the top tier with thousands of paid off acres. But the majority - tough years come. Human nature in that some prepare, some don’t. Always has been that way, always will b that way. Same with BUBBLES, people paying crazy prices, recessions, greed, etc- these things will always come & go. For the health of the market - we are due for a dip. When this storm comes!?!???…. Who knows. I’m ok with it & I never want to discourage land ownership (DO IT!!!) …. But I assure u- the storm will come.