What u mean? Expand..... like- u think Lower rates won’t get the demand to enroll? Is 30m “high” vs previous years? I only follow how many acres Iowa does so I don’t know If this is high or low. & what u mean by “overcorrecting & not for good of conservation”?
Acres caps: The 2014 farm bill capped CRP acres at 24M. That's nationwide. That was down from 32m acres in previous farm bill. CRP has been shut down for the last ~ year because we were up against the 24M acre cap, nationwide. Some acres have expired, so it is now back open. The new farm bill has been rumored to raise the acreage cap to about 30M, nationwide.
Rental Rates: If we are looking at a 1/3 cut in rates, I think it swings too far, and thus makes it unattractive, financially. Example.... I cash rent some ground at $170/acre. CSR2 50ish. I would
PREFER that the marginal portions of that go into CRP and continue cropping the rest. Previous CRP rate probably would pay about $200. So that rate gets cut by 1/3. CRP rate becomes $132. So, Landowner is now faced with a decision.... keep renting all ground possible at $170 or take LESS, $132 to put some in CRP. For me, I might do it anyway. For MOST people, particularly those not connected to the land, they will just crop everything they can, it pays more. Conservation loses.
I agree that big farms should not be able to enroll everything into CRP, especially "the good stuff". That's what happened because of the 2014 farm bill with its rates. The 2018 is going too far the other way. They need to "match" cash rent rates, not be well below them. A potential solution would to be not "locked" into a set rate, but rather mirror the county average cash rent adjusted for CSR. That, however, brings a lot of variables into the equation that probably would be unmanageable.
Bottom line, if they are cutting rates THAT much, CRP becomes unattractive for a lot of people and marginal ground will just be farmed. In that regard, conservation loses. Even if CRP rates were identical as cash rent rates, its still a financial loser if all of the cost share goes away on putting the CRP in.
We shall see.