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Crop prices, inputs & interest rates...

Sligh1

Sligh1

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Staff member
Interesting times right now. This is the local text I got today. Big difference from 6-8 months ago.
ROUGHLY, this spike, prices up 25% on crops
Interest rates down about 25%

side note.... these fertilizer companies are jacking prices up fast!!!...... almost borderlines on greedy, shady, etc but most industries pull that stuff.

All these different rates, prices, etc - so many moving pieces!!! Wonder how all this ag stuff will shake out?!?!
Recreational is not nearly as complex. Tied more to economy & interest rates & less impact from commodities.

gonna be an interesting year!!!!

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I ordered some cow manure. It’s going to end up being cheaper than conventional PLUS it has all the micros, organic matter, etc. Locally we ran out of hog & chicken so I’m hauling this about 12 miles. Still better than conventional in both ways- cost & effectiveness.
 
Take a look a lumber prices from July 2020 till now. Volatility like never seen in the 30 yrs I have spent in a wood manufacturing industry. Raw material costs for our industry up roughly 85% from early July to early Sept (not a typo). Back down some in Oct-Nov, now back up above the Sept highs.

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BJohnson said:
Take a look a lumber prices from July 2020 till now. Volatility like never seen in the 30 yrs I have spent in a wood manufacturing industry. Raw material costs for our industry up roughly 85% from early July to early Sept (not a typo). Back down some in Oct-Nov, now back up above the Sept highs.

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Tell me about it, I've been in the construction industry for quite a while too. This is unprecedented in my time. Suppliers are regularly raising prices unannounced . It's hard to put bids together and stand by them. The crazy part is I have more work available than I can find crews to erect. Hyperinflation from massive amounts of money being pumped into people's pockets? Everything from building materials, vehicles, land and homes are through the roof here.
 
BJohnson said:
Take a look a lumber prices from July 2020 till now. Volatility like never seen in the 30 yrs I have spent in a wood manufacturing industry. Raw material costs for our industry up roughly 85% from early July to early Sept (not a typo). Back down some in Oct-Nov, now back up above the Sept highs.

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It's wild. I'm in the commercial construction industry and this is a BIG deal. Sending waves thru the home-building and post frame markets as well.
 
Lumber at historic highs, grains up dramatically, crude back above $50. Seems like the whole commodity complex is showing signs of inflation pushing its way through the system. Wages, at least in IA, have also moved up in the past 2 yrs.

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Those that own assets are reaping the benefits, those that don't are falling further behind. Becoming more like the Hunger Games every day. Who's getting squeezed the most? As usual the middle class.
 
That is a big problem for our country. I could write more but don't want to drag this site into a political discussion. It would just be refreshing to be able to vote for someone you like rather than voting against someone you can't stand.


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2 buddies who did “pretty well” were planning building houses in last 12 months. Both stopped. & way more folks out there didn’t stop though. Building like crazy here.

the 2 that stopped both said their quotes or costs went up like 20%. So much that they said “no way. I’m gonna stay where at or rent” it was significant. But- on flip side- interest rates are down like 1%+ so... I suppose that’s cheaper payments. Either way- I think I’d be cautious as well right now. I’m not saying it’s the same but it does remind me of 2008 in some sense.... folks & prices going bananas. Getting a little out of hand.
“Be cautious when others are greedy. Be greedy when others are cautious”. IMO- will be solid mindset in business forever.

I thinking I need to get some updated pallet wood pricing!!! Might be time. & ya, without getting into politics it’s “crazy times” no doubt and IMO - be prepared for some challenges ahead.

Short term farm prices are probably going to jump right now when your rental income or grain prices up 25% & interest costs down 25%. Short term- it’s gonna get driven up. Add in nervous investors from other markets- tillable or income be strong IMO
 
US M2 Money Stock refers to the measure of money supply that includes financial assets held mainly by households such as savings deposits, time deposits, and balances in retail money market mutual funds, in addition to more readily-available liquid financial assets as defined by the M1 measure of money, such as currency, traveler's checks, demand deposits, and other checkable deposits. The US M2 Money Stock is critical in understanding and forecasting money supply, inflation, and interest rates in the US. Historically, when the money supply dramatically increased in global economies, there would be a following dramatic increase in prices of goods and services, which would then follow monetary policy with the aim to maintain inflation levels low.

US M2 Money Supply is at a current level of 19.18T, up from 19.07T last week and up from 15.33T one year ago. This is a change of 0.56% from last week and 25.12% from one year ago.

Then there's the M1 money supply - no doubt some of the inflation is from money supply and not just our supply chain being broke. The entire US economy, and that of most/all of the world is based on an inflationary monetary policy.
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