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Everything is changing, But do we know it yet?

Trapshooter1

Well-Known Member
A friend of mine is a salesman that works at a John Deere dealership. Was chatting with him and he said new equipment sales have come to a screeching halt, used machinery has slowed down a lot. Even parts have slowed down.
Commodity markets have been on the slide that is no secret, with interest rates at 7-8% yes 8% on farmland and cash
corn in the 3s. I think the correction is happening before our eyes we just don't know it, with the lack of land sales in the last 6 months it is hard to gauge the tillable market right now.

I believe we are headed into interesting times. Housing market here has come to a snails pace crawl. If the Fed has the gumption to not crumble under pressure I believe their will be deals coming in the land market when enough pain has been endured. But we are not there yet.

Just some thoughts on what I have been seeing. What's everyone else been seeing in their local area?
 
It’s SLOWING!!! No doubt about it!!!! Agree on equipment sales & that’s not my expertise.
Land sales…. Slowing. Not crashing. Not collapsing. Just slowing or softening. & I believe it will continue to slow & soften further yet. Especially “mediocre” stuff… low to medium quality, IMO & best guess ….. 10-20%. Top end stuff…. 2-8%. That’s my best GUESS. That’s with current course & situation.
Throw a recession into this?!!?!? Or corn going to $3.50 for a year or 2 … bigger reductions. Like it or not…. This election is gonna have big impacts on both rec & ag ground. Rec from an economy health + interest rate perspective. Ag from commodity prices + interest rates.
 
A friend of mine is a salesman that works at a John Deere dealership. Was chatting with him and he said new equipment sales have come to a screeching halt, used machinery has slowed down a lot. Even parts have slowed down.
Commodity markets have been on the slide that is no secret, with interest rates at 7-8% yes 8% on farmland and cash
corn in the 3s. I think the correction is happening before our eyes we just don't know it, with the lack of land sales in the last 6 months it is hard to gauge the tillable market right now.

I believe we are headed into interesting times. Housing market here has come to a snails pace crawl. If the Fed has the gumption to not crumble under pressure I believe their will be deals coming in the land market when enough pain has been endured. But we are not there yet.

Just some thoughts on what I have been seeing. What's everyone else been seeing in their local area?

There have actually been a lot of tillable land sales in Iowa in the last 6 months. As of right now, 2024 tillable land sales in Iowa are roughly on par with 2021 and 2023 and well above 18/19/20, though well below 2022. See link.

 
I read a report on real estate in the warm states, Texas, Florida, AZ… it’s starting to change . I mean it could get ugly again !
 
It's not all doom and gloom.

Stock market at record highs. Past month may have been my best month ever in market.

Interest rates highly likly to drop in September.

I wouldn't want to be a guy that paid record highs on tillable in last couple years.... ouch. Commodities little to no correlation to rec market imo. Different animals no doubt.
 
There have actually been a lot of tillable land sales in Iowa in the last 6 months. As of right now, 2024 tillable land sales in Iowa are roughly on par with 2021 and 2023 and well above 18/19/20, though well below 2022. See link.

Maybe I should clarify that when I say "on par", I'm talking about the number of overall tillable acres sold, though honestly the prices haven't changed that much either. Maybe went down a little, but not that much. There are starting to be more "no sale" land auctions though. My take is that's mostly a result of unrealistic seller expectations driven by a combination of an overheated/overpriced land market the last 3 years + land agents saying "sure we can sell your land for that very inflated price!" all while very likely knowing that's not realistic. And yes, I am a realtor/land agent, and no, I do not list properties for sale way above attainable market values.
 
It's not all doom and gloom.

Stock market at record highs. Past month may have been my best month ever in market.

Interest rates highly likly to drop in September.

I wouldn't want to be a guy that paid record highs on tillable in last couple years.... ouch. Commodities little to no correlation to rec market imo. Different animals no doubt.
Very much so. One is a business investment. The other can be seen as an investment, but when land is purchased primarily for recreational purposes, that is a discretionary purchase and those are the first things people usually tighten their belts on when things get a little tighter economically, or when, say, interest rates go way up. A lot easier to justify a high interest loan on a purely business investment than on a primarily recreational investment.
 
Can you elaborate? Could you post the article? Just curious

The article from Daily Caller, referenced a build up of homes listed on the market . He compared it to 2008-09 in states such as Florida, Texas & Tennessee.

“Top Real Estate Consultant warns there’s a bubble about to pop on American Soil “
 
The article from Daily Caller, referenced a build up of homes listed on the market . He compared it to 2008-09 in states such as Florida, Texas & Tennessee.

“Top Real Estate Consultant warns there’s a bubble about to pop on American Soil “
What are you seeing in your area - you're in the space - correct?
 
A friend of mine is a salesman that works at a John Deere dealership. Was chatting with him and he said new equipment sales have come to a screeching halt, used machinery has slowed down a lot. Even parts have slowed down.
Commodity markets have been on the slide that is no secret, with interest rates at 7-8% yes 8% on farmland and cash
corn in the 3s. I think the correction is happening before our eyes we just don't know it, with the lack of land sales in the last 6 months it is hard to gauge the tillable market right now.

I believe we are headed into interesting times. Housing market here has come to a snails pace crawl. If the Fed has the gumption to not crumble under pressure I believe their will be deals coming in the land market when enough pain has been endured. But we are not there yet.

Just some thoughts on what I have been seeing. What's everyone else been seeing in their local area?
Curious....What dealership does he work for??
 
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