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How low will corn go?

Hardwood11

Hardwood11

It is going to be a good fall!
How low will corn go?

Prices are cut in half now, and looks to be a huge supply after the fall harvest?

Any predictions? Suddenly CRP looks attractive again
 
Thank goodness i'm at only about 10% of my whole crop being corn.
I'll be taking some beating on beans & likely need to store some.
I actually like corrections like this, kinda weeds out some greed in a whole lot of scenarios and ways (land prices, farming stuff that shouldn't be, thinking ur land is worth 5 trillion an acre, clearing conservation land, etc).
The strong will survive through this tough time.
 
Agree on the corrections. It will hopefully make rec land more affordable and create some situations where conservation such as CRP will be popular again.

Planting trees instead of dozing trees.
 
Hardwood11 said:
Agree on the corrections. It will hopefully make rec land more affordable and create some situations where conservation such as CRP will be popular again.

Planting trees instead of dozing trees.
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Then the cycle will repeat itself again in 20 years when grain prices sky rocket again :D
 
heck, this year record harvest isn't even the issue...the farmers market report said there is still millions of bushels in storage. If so, where is this year's record crop going???

Plus that doesn't take into account the foreign markets.

Those that know say it's going to be rough for the next couple years, and that they're forecasting corrections into 2016.

We're one big drought or flood away from fixing it all.

So will we see cheaper booze and ethanol at the pump?
 
Elevators are already contracting corn around 2.90 for Nov and Dec.
It is guessed to hit below 2.50 here in NW MO. Lot of elevators are planning on piling it on the ground when they get bins full.
 
There are a lot of factors that still need to play out before fall harvest. That being said harvest is not here yet, we have not had any of the typical Midwest heat which could impact moisture levels and create increased drying, and most of the typical large buyers do not want anything more than a 14-20% moisture rating. Congress and the media could impact an up or down swing in prices, or the ethonal industry could report a shortage due to increased production. I dont think we will see prices in the mid $4 range but would not be shocked if they hit the low $4 range as a high. I would not be over energetic to lock in $2+ corn at this point.

A correction has been needed. One thing the government and the markets need to keep in mind is the input cost per acre. If grain prices get too low then the yields will suffer due to cut costs pertaining to inputs (primarily fertilizer) and then we will be back to having a defecit and be back in the same boat as we were a few years ago with high grain prices and food costs due to the shortage.

Hedging of crops is becoming more and more of a normal farming practice, the evolution of the business side of the farming industry is ever so changing.
 
I don't believe you will see corn much below the $3.25/bu mark. Yes there will be cash bids less than that, but that is simply easier than putting a sign on the door saying "we dont have room for your corn" In my opinion the global market for corn supports the $3.25 value. The proteins (Hogs, poultry, and cattle) are all in a growth/ rebuild stage and will need corn to feed. As far as rec land values go, I'm torn whether thre will be a big correction. The cattle market for cow/calf operators has been very favorable and fundamentally doesn't look like it will change for 2-3 years. I think this will allow guys to seed down marginal ground and run cows on it. IF guys can afford to invest in cow herds in southern Iowa, there will be high demand for marginal ground for pasturing them. Just my 2 cents
 
kjohn15 said:
I don't believe you will see corn much below the $3.25/bu mark. Yes there will be cash bids less than that, but that is simply easier than putting a sign on the door saying "we dont have room for your corn" In my opinion the global market for corn supports the $3.25 value. The proteins (Hogs, poultry, and cattle) are all in a growth/ rebuild stage and will need corn to feed. As far as rec land values go, I'm torn whether thre will be a big correction. The cattle market for cow/calf operators has been very favorable and fundamentally doesn't look like it will change for 2-3 years. I think this will allow guys to seed down marginal ground and run cows on it. IF guys can afford to invest in cow herds in southern Iowa, there will be high demand for marginal ground for pasturing them. Just my 2 cents
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Might be nice to get back some pasture ground since what's left in pasture is already in high demand and low supply. But like you said, IF they can afford the cows to begin with.
 
Great posts guys. I'd love to hear from the same folks & others on what your thoughts are on bean prices?
 
Another factor is within the next 2 or 3 years there will be 2 million acre reduction in crp. That will only increase the supply side of the crop equation. It will be very interesting going forward with cash rents. Once the crop insurance guarantees reset next march then the true risk of farming in these markets will be understood. Carghill in eddyville would take bids for. 2nd half Nov for 3.45 today. I know we won't go back to the early 80's but there are a lot of similarities with Russia and all that is happening in the world.
 
Cost the farmer about 4.20 to grow a bushel of corn with high seed, fertilizer, fuel, equipment etc. So with corn at 3.40 getting screwed. Especially when the ethanol plant breaks even at $8 a bushel. Farmer has to life also
 
gunhunter said:
Cost the farmer about 4.20 to grow a bushel of corn with high seed, fertilizer, fuel, equipment etc. So with corn at 3.40 getting screwed. Especially when the ethanol plant breaks even at $8 a bushel. Farmer has to life also
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Ethanol plant breaks even at $8? Elaborate please...
 
Buckdown89 said:
Ethanol plant breaks even at $8? Elaborate please...
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They are still profitable up to $8/bu is what I take from this

The Pro Farm Crop Tour is in its final day(s), wide range of yields from upper 200 bpa to sub 100 bpa.. With really no moisture from late July till just the past day or 2, corn and beans are getting hit hard on the lighter ground. I've noticed it mostly just this week fields turning yellow, whereas last week were still an even dark green. We've been blessed with below normal highs and cool nights. Thats the only thing that has saved this crop, and this springs replenishing rains.

We'd be in a moderate to severe drought if we had 90*+ days the past 2-3 weeks, and hurting pretty bad.
 
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