Yes, I'm familiar. My family runs grain elevators and I market crops. I should have been more clear on the accelerated drop.
When interest rates rise, the value of the dollar rises with it, which drives down commodity prices on the international exchange. You are seeing more negative pricing pressure than the usual fall harvest as a result of rising rates. That pattern doesn't sound to be slowing either.
When speculating grain prices for next year, yes there's so much this that and the other that goes into it. It's far more than I'll EVER understand. No, I have never sold a bushel of corn in my life. Is that obvious yet?
So everyone talks about dollar value, interest rates, crop size, exports, and these drive markets higher and lower. I basically get it on a VERY elementary level.
However, I do pay attention to what's going on in the world, and here are the things I do NOT hear anyone talking about.
1) EU fertilizer regulations. Will this cause food shortages and drive demand and higher prices?
2) Fertilizer shortages next year. Where are we on this? Did I hear somewhere in Africa was going to get a plant online to supply the world?
3) Central Banks. The U.N. has now called on Biden and central banks to reverse interest rate hikes and fight inflation with price controls of energy producing companies. Wow, that doesn't sound spooky at all. Will Biden bow down to the U.N.? How does this effect diesel prices and grain markets?
4) ESG scores. If you don't know what ESG scores are, look it up. More spooky stuff. Will ESG scores start effecting farm loans? Have they already? How so and what does that do to grain prices.
5) Climate change. If democrats somehow hold the house and senate, it will be pedal to the metal on destroying the hydro carbon industry. That will necessarily drive fuel prices through the roof. Given OPEC's obvious disrespect and distaste for Biden, they will continue to jack with oil prices, only guaranteeing a crippling fuel shortage in the States of America. What will THAT do to grain prices?
I don't believe all this can happen in a year, but any one of these things swinging the wrong way could easily cause higher grain prices (but below input cost). Consider the trillions of dollars created to thin air recently and we know the inflation problem isn't going away anytime soon. If I was a grain speculator, me thinks I'd bet my money with Buckscrape and his $8 corn prediction. Just my 2 cents.
OK, go ahead and blow me up now.