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Land prices / insane!!!

The key to bringing prices on rec/hunting ground down is landowners being realistic. Most of the time landowners think their land is worth more than the market says it is, and that has been exacerbated by the raging bull market in land in 2021 and 2022. The raging bull sellers market has been over for a while now. It is still a sellers market, but if you're looking to sell you better be real close to market price with your list price or your land isn't going to move. The best thing to help landowners see reality about market value of their land is "time on the market". When their new high-priced listing sits for months on end with no serious offers, that helps to start bringing their head out of the clouds. Good land deals for buyers in southern Iowa right now are still few and far between. Who knows what the next 6-12 months will bring but if I had to guess I'd say the land market will continue to slow down a bit.
 
Need more listings to hit the market . Nothing is for sale. In Minnesota, there’s not anything for sale over 40 acres in my county ! Nothing

The lake market is still on fire ! There’s maybe one home for sale on a 8000 acre lake that I live on. A cabin here was $300k-400k now it’s over 500k

A nice house with 100 feet of shoreline is six figures on the lake .
 
Fwiw, the rec pieces I see staying on the market for anything longer than a few days are the "weird" ones...the ones no serious deer hunter wants. These are weird because of strange boundary lines and/or too close of neighbors, etc.

I hope the market cools because I would like to buy another place, but I am not seeing it in my area yet.
 
Daver said:
Fwiw, the rec pieces I see staying on the market for anything longer than a few days are the "weird" ones...the ones no serious deer hunter wants. These are weird because of strange boundary lines and/or too close of neighbors, etc.

I hope the market cools because I would like to buy another place, but I am not seeing it in my area yet.
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Agreed, or they are so expensive very few can afford them. There is a 1000 acre piece in Southern Iowa for sale now that looks incredible, but not many can afford 5.5 million.
 
It’s tight. Hard to find good buys. That will change…. At some point ;)……. I can see case for strong land prices ongoing BUT but I can equally valid reasons it will decline….. I have my gut & bet - but that’s all it is.
 
Daver said:
Fwiw, the rec pieces I see staying on the market for anything longer than a few days are the "weird" ones...the ones no serious deer hunter wants. These are weird because of strange boundary lines and/or too close of neighbors, etc.

I hope the market cools because I would like to buy another place, but I am not seeing it in my area yet.
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Those may be factors in some cases, but more than anything else the majority of places for sale at least here in southern Iowa are just asking too much $. Part of it is landowners who are unrealistic about the real market value of their land, and part of it is that some realtors will tell a landowner whatever they think he wants to hear, in order to get the land listing.
 
tall@wide said:
Agreed, or they are so expensive very few can afford them. There is a 1000 acre piece in Southern Iowa for sale now that looks incredible, but not many can afford 5.5 million.
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Lucas County is where we live and that place is about 10 miles from my house. That property does have some nice wildlife habitat, but there are reasons that it is *way* overpriced at 5.5 million ($5,500/acre). For starters, once you get over about 100 acres, the pool of potential buyers starts shrinking quickly, which means less demand, which means you have to lower your price per acre. Second, a third of that property is floodplain and in WRP (wetland reserve program). That means it's probably in a 30 year easement or a perpetual easement. Great for wildlife habitat, horrible for land re-sale value. If you ever see a property anywhere in Iowa that looks like it's priced for sale at an unusually *low* price, look close at the aerial photos and contour map (and description), chances are pretty good the property is enlisted in the WRP program. The pros about that property are that there is a lot of habitat diversity, plenty of crop ground for food, and it is extremely rare to find a property in southern Iowa that has that much acreage for sale in a single contiguous chunk. That said, any buyer who can afford to buy that property is likely to be an experienced land buyer and will understand the reasons it's not worth close to $5,500/acre. If I had to guess, I'd say if it is purchased as currently constituted, it's likely to sell closer to $4,000/acre than $5,500/acre. Which is still obviously a bigger chunk of change than about 98% of hunters can afford to put into a hunting property.
 
I’ve never understood why some people see no discount for WRP ground? It kind of makes me laugh.

They were paid very well for the easement, and it’s very restrictive! You can’t farm it, build on it, in some cases no food plots, or even permanent deer stands .

Then they advertise it like it’s a huge positive? Such as “the bottom is in WRP which means it will be permanent wildlife habitat forever “

In my opinion (as a licensed realtor)It’s best to disclose that it’s a restrictive easement and the prior owners were paid for the easement.

*Yes it can create some interesting habitat !
 
jflournoy said:
Lucas County is where we live and that place is about 10 miles from my house. That property does have some nice wildlife habitat, but there are reasons that it is *way* overpriced at 5.5 million ($5,500/acre). For starters, once you get over about 100 acres, the pool of potential buyers starts shrinking quickly, which means less demand, which means you have to lower your price per acre. Second, a third of that property is floodplain and in WRP (wetland reserve program). That means it's probably in a 30 year easement or a perpetual easement. Great for wildlife habitat, horrible for land re-sale value. If you ever see a property anywhere in Iowa that looks like it's priced for sale at an unusually *low* price, look close at the aerial photos and contour map (and description), chances are pretty good the property is enlisted in the WRP program. The pros about that property are that there is a lot of habitat diversity, plenty of crop ground for food, and it is extremely rare to find a property in southern Iowa that has that much acreage for sale in a single contiguous chunk. That said, any buyer who can afford to buy that property is likely to be an experienced land buyer and will understand the reasons it's not worth close to $5,500/acre. If I had to guess, I'd say if it is purchased as currently constituted, it's likely to sell closer to $4,000/acre than $5,500/acre. Which is still obviously a bigger chunk of change than about 98% of hunters can afford to put into a hunting property.
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I haven't researched the details of this farm because it's out of my price range right now. I do think it will sell for more than $4000 acre, and probably a small group will buy it. No doubt some giants call that place home.
 
It’s still nuts!!!!!!!
ONLY thing that will stop this rec land madness is the ECONOMY. I thought rates would do it but there’s still too much cash out there. The inventory is just still so tight. It doesn’t make any sense & the market is simply OVER VALUED IMHO. Which is a subjective opinion on a finite resource.

Limited supply of land.
40% more $ put into market.
Dudes across country trying to secure a “quality hunting experience”.

those 3 things continue to drive it in the face of what values “should be”. A recession- whenever it happens - will shut this down. In meantime…. This ride could go on longer if they lower rates in future here. Could see another little run up. Crazy. Only words for this…. Absolutely crazy.
 
z71bowhunter1965 said:
Outfitters fault,,,,
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I’m not for outfitters but how so?

Commercialization of deer hunting horn porn on social media and greed!!

I have ran the numbers multiple times and for me I could go on a pretty good guided hunt every year for the interest alone on what some of these rec properties are bringing.

My brother and are both in accounting/finance and we have this discussion all the time. No financial sense at all. If someone did have the cash it is still costing them 5% to shoot a deer or two which makes for some expensive antlers!

I get the “we just love the food plot and land management” stuff but at what point does that get expensive….
 
Muskrat24 said:
I’m not for outfitters but how so?

Commercialization of deer hunting horn porn on social media and greed!!

I have ran the numbers multiple times and for me I could go on a pretty good guided hunt every year for the interest alone on what some of these rec properties are bringing.

My brother and are both in accounting/finance and we have this discussion all the time. No financial sense at all. If someone did have the cash it is still costing them 5% to shoot a deer or two which makes for some expensive antlers!

I get the “we just love the food plot and land management” stuff but at what point does that get expensive….
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I agree these prices are bonkers. Even in surrounding states to Iowa, low inventory and plenty of buyers yet it seems for good rec farms. However, going on a guided hunt to shoot an animal vs. buying a farm, improving the habitat, and killing a big deer off your own farm has a much different feeling to it. I have done both. Not even the same ballpark, IMO.

Finance guys can pencil things out all day, and I agree, it doesn't make sense on paper but more times than not, they are the ones on the sidelines not buying land because the price is too high, and also doing the complaining that they should have bought land 5 years ago. Can't take the money with you so I say buy what makes you happy if you have the cash for it.
 
Muskrat24 said:
I’m not for outfitters but how so?

Commercialization of deer hunting horn porn on social media and greed!!

I have ran the numbers multiple times and for me I could go on a pretty good guided hunt every year for the interest alone on what some of these rec properties are bringing.

My brother and are both in accounting/finance and we have this discussion all the time. No financial sense at all. If someone did have the cash it is still costing them 5% to shoot a deer or two which makes for some expensive antlers!

I get the “we just love the food plot and land management” stuff but at what point does that get expensive….
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I used to run the same math ! I even used the same logic & #’s when ground was $2k an acre. Even when it was $1k an acre. My goal way back was to own 640 acres- at that point: $640k. Interest from that - even then could provide enough income to travel on hunts forever.

The problem I ran into with that math:
1) appreciation of land value always happens over long periods of time. Still a good investment.
2) obvious one…. I think to most at least…. MOST whitetail outfitted hunts SUCK. Top ended over hunted disasters. I’d much rather hunt on permission ground. So- I went full circle to only 2 options “do I wanna hunt by permission or own it?”
3) not about the $. Folks want a quality experience.
4) 99% of folks (probably including myself) would end up spending the $ anyways. Buying land, even if it never went up in value …. Is like a “forced savings account”. A few years into buying land, I actually owned something & payments sucked while it was happening. But I woulda blown the $ had I not done it. My buddies with same jobs/income as me - vast majority spent it or found other costs: “trips, trucks, houses, boats, etc”.


It’s “too high”. Still say folks better off buying at a “too high” IF land is “right for them” vs kicking can 5-10 years down road.
This will swing other way. There will be a point where land sales are “slow” & it’s a “buyers market”.
 
Lack of inventory is what will drive a piece to sell or not right now. I believe some of that has to do with a lot of off market deals that also get done now because many realtors take % and don't provide any / minimal benefit. Not saying ALL realtors...but many.

Where it gets real interesting is the next 10-20 years when baby boomers start passing away and their kids need $ or simply don't want the real estate. Very few talking about this. And those that are, will tell you to flip a coin to see what this does for the RE market :)
 
I've been waiting 3 years for a correction. Not convinced it will ever happen in any meaningful way. Every new piece I see listed is sky high and eventually sells. Used to be able to buy most stuff privately. The influx of new real estate companies ans land agents in last 7 years is mind boggling. Has made that private aspect way more difficult.
 
Another thing I don't think gets taken into consideration much when people see high prices is the 40% (give or take) of inflation and reduced value of the dollar. A $3500-4000/acre farm a few years ago is now $4900-5600 farm. Same dirt, not really worth a whole lot more money but the number is a shock to look at.
 
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