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Land prices summer 2025 & on….

Sligh1

Sligh1

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Staff member
I’ll make this really short & add as needed. Things are “ok” - I still would say, slight edge to seller. Some farms sitting but at same time, inventory very tight… the right ones move, like always I guess.
SOOOOO….. here’s my “trying to be helpful” iowawhitetail 2 cents from one schmucks perspective …. IF u r thinking of buying land, I kinda think now is the time to pull the trigger IF you are able. Here’s the “gamble” or “speculation” for what it’s worth…. Things have slowed a bit so a “good to fair buy” is clearly possible now …. Here’s the KEY I want you guys to at least have in your minds…. Maybe happens, maybe doesn’t…. IF IF Trump gets his way & the powers behind the scenes- they are gonna fight like frigin crazy to get these rates down. Powell’s term will be up (I think may???) if he doesn’t resign. Trump & the deficit hawks want rates down “3%” because: 1) it would reduce deficit by $1 TRILLION per year in interest & 2) would turbo charge economy…..
& yes- I get inflation needs to be in check but if they keep lowering energy prices & so on …. We probably could keep it in check.
Now- IF IF IF that happens. Or even 2%…. Buckle up!!! Ground will go up $1-2k per acre very fast. I’m not saying rates will get pushed down for sure… if I was a “betting man” - I guess id bet on lower rates. Maybe wrong. But- if you do believe rates will come down…. NOW would be the time to buy. It will make another run up!!! If you can’t do it anyways, not a buyer, don’t think rates will go down…. Then this post is irrelevant to you. All I’m saying…. Just chew on the dynamics here, what could happen & Just understand that one fundamental reality… IF IF IF rates get cut big time- ground is gonna shoot up in price very fast.
 
Trump will replace Powell… almost a sure bet in 26. Scott Bessent is a candidate, if he’s the new Secretary he will lower rates. He’s a very accomplished financial person & knows the inside of the economy & bond market!

Any slightly higher rate could be refinanced ? Just a strategy !
 
At this point, anything is possible. I feel like I'm living in the matrix. Things that made sense 20 years ago make no sense today. I think that's why Warren Buffett is having such a hard time investing the last 5 , 10 years. He missed out on a lot of gains by selling some stocks, GS as an example. Nothing makes sense to me anymore, not the stock market, not Bitcoin or the other 4000 alt coins, not land, not half our population wanting free housing and healthcare for illegals but letting it's own citizens suffer. The DOW could go to 50k by the end of the year, land up 2k, and corn to 3.50... is there that much money sloshing around? Must be.... Buffet indicator at 205% How do land prices track with Stocks? Don't ask me, the more I learn, the less I know....
 
Watched Market to Market, the economist on there seemed to think Powell should be cutting rates right now, with the way the economy looks.(And hasn't because Trump told him to) I think Ag land has come down some but not enough to reflect the current commodity markets.

I'm willing to bet Trump will can Powell at the first opportunity. Does that means rates will take a nose dive? Idk.

Judging by the big beautiful bill, the plan is to print their way out of this financial mess, which is not great. Land will continue to rise(if they drop rates significantly).
 
deerdown said:
At this point, anything is possible. I feel like I'm living in the matrix. Things that made sense 20 years ago make no sense today. I think that's why Warren Buffett is having such a hard time investing the last 5 , 10 years. He missed out on a lot of gains by selling some stocks, GS as an example. Nothing makes sense to me anymore, not the stock market, not Bitcoin or the other 4000 alt coins, not land, not half our population wanting free housing and healthcare for illegals but letting it's own citizens suffer. The DOW could go to 50k by the end of the year, land up 2k, and corn to 3.50... is there that much money sloshing around? Must be.... Buffet indicator at 205% How do land prices track with Stocks? Don't ask me, the more I learn, the less I know....
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Buffett is a legendary investor, but he’s missed some great companies not far from Omaha !

Example ….John Deere (Iowa/Illinois) Garmin (US headquarters in Kansas) Casey’s (Ankeny, Iowa)!
 
JNRBRONC said:
Did you read Buffet's thoughts on buying farm ground?
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I didn’t - what did he say in nutshell or fire up a link. Interesting to hear that POV. Even if I don’t agree or even when discuss with folks who prefer stocks over land…. Like hearing “why”.
 
Sligh1 said:
I didn’t - what did he say in nutshell or fire up a link. Interesting to hear that POV. Even if I don’t agree or even when discuss with folks who prefer stocks over land…. Like hearing “why”.
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FWIW:
Warren Buffett owns a 400-acre farm near Omaha, Nebraska, which he purchased in 1986. He bought the farm for $280,000 and it has since tripled its earnings and is worth five times more than his initial investment, according to ABC News. Buffett's son, Howard Buffett, also owns and operates a 1,500-acre family farm in Illinois, and several research farms.

Howard Buffet:
Buffett operates a 1,500-acre family farm in central Illinois and also oversees three foundation-operated research farms: 1,400 acres in Arizona, 4,000 acres in Illinois, and 9,200 acres in South Africa.

Having financial resources takes the hand cuffs off.
 
I hear a lot of stuff online about could be the 1980s again … & the land market will crash . First off, the 1980s are not coming back ! It was a great time grow up, but the days of minimal $$ floating around, no cell phones, no internet … it’s all changed .

There was not the same crop guarantee program back then. The risk was huge to plant corn & soybeans . With today’s seed varieties equipment & crop insurance guarantees, it’s not equivalent !

You think if the market dropped by 20-30% that buyers would not be ready to buy??

There are farmers, investors, hunters, wildlife organizations, developers, tree huggers… all trying to buy more land.

A great quote that I always remember was in relation to collecting baseball cards . A serious collector was asked what he’d do if his impressive Mickey Mantle cards crashed to near worthless ….He said, “I’d be too busy buying every card I could find to worry about it”

If the market drops 25%-30%—I’d be surprisedbut fine with it—but wouldn’t be selling! Definitely looking for steals & deals.

It’s not the 80s anymore! Although I wish life was more simple like the 1980s ! Fun times & much better music!
 
Hardwood11 said:
I hear a lot of stuff online about could be the 1980s again … & the land market will crash . First off, the 1980s are not coming back ! It was a great time grow up, but the days of minimal $$ floating around, no cell phones, no internet … it’s all changed .

There was not the same crop guarantee program back then. The risk was huge to plant corn & soybeans . With today’s seed varieties equipment & crop insurance guarantees, it’s not equivalent !

You think if the market dropped by 20-30% that buyers would not be ready to buy??

There are farmers, investors, hunters, wildlife organizations, developers, tree huggers… all trying to buy more land.

A great quote that I always remember was in relation to collecting baseball cards . A serious collector was asked what he’d do if his impressive Mickey Mantle cards crashed to near worthless ….He said, “I’d be too busy buying every card I could find to worry about it”

If the market drops 25%-30%—I’d be surprisedbut fine with it—but wouldn’t be selling! Definitely looking for steals & deals.

It’s not the 80s anymore! Although I wish life was more simple like the 1980s ! Fun times & much better music!
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And foreign countries... :rolleyes:
 
Hardwood11 said:
I hear a lot of stuff online about could be the 1980s again … & the land market will crash . First off, the 1980s are not coming back ! It was a great time grow up, but the days of minimal $$ floating around, no cell phones, no internet … it’s all changed .

There was not the same crop guarantee program back then. The risk was huge to plant corn & soybeans . With today’s seed varieties equipment & crop insurance guarantees, it’s not equivalent !

You think if the market dropped by 20-30% that buyers would not be ready to buy??

There are farmers, investors, hunters, wildlife organizations, developers, tree huggers… all trying to buy more land.

A great quote that I always remember was in relation to collecting baseball cards . A serious collector was asked what he’d do if his impressive Mickey Mantle cards crashed to near worthless ….He said, “I’d be too busy buying every card I could find to worry about it”

If the market drops 25%-30%—I’d be surprisedbut fine with it—but wouldn’t be selling! Definitely looking for steals & deals.

It’s not the 80s anymore! Although I wish life was more simple like the 1980s ! Fun times & much better music!
Click to expand...
People have been screeching about the 80s coming back for at least 25 years. If I had listened to those people, I wouldn't own a thing today. Even if it all blows up tomorrow, I'm still way better off than if I had spent my life paralyzed by fear.
 
I think rates will come down once things stabilize a bit. It’s tough to set sound policy when everything is a moving target.

Powell is just one vote out of 12 on the FOMC. He can guide the conversation, but it’s a committee decision. At their last meeting (June 18), the vote to hold rates steady was unanimous (12–0) which says a lot about their current mindset.

Most experts at big banks like Goldman Sachs are now assigning better-than-even odds to the likelihood of 2 to 3 rate cuts by the end of 2025. Goldman, for instance, sees the first cut coming in September (though the probability is only slightly above 50 percent), with additional cuts possible in October and December. That said, these are just forecasts and will change depending on how inflation and labor market data evolve.
 
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