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land prices

I have my "hopes" about where rec land values will go but not much confidence that I know what the hell I am talking about :D.

I do find it interesting when some of the high-profile guys start to list there tracts for sale though - what is that telling me ??

Example - just yesterday it appears that almost 1,000 acres hit the market NW of Lineville. Jay Gregory appears to be one seller and the other is just N of the Gregory land. Both are turn-key properties with high sticker prices. I looked at a small parcel in this immediate area in July and the agent felt it was one of the best neighborhoods in the state for whitetails. He was strongly encouraging me to consider the area for that reason but it would be a LONG drive for me. After looking at some of the cam images for these listings - I don't doubt what I was told.

Makes a guy ponder why two major hunting parcels like these would be hitting the market almost simulataneously?? Do they feel like it's a great time to sell (high point)?? Like I stated, I don't consider myself the smartest guy related to this topic but I do like to pay attention to those that I feel may have a better knowledge of the topic than me.

Good conversation - glad to see the topic back at the top.
 
Whenever I sold it was to buy another place or generate money to complete an existing project.

I know of some land that will change hands and never see a listing in public. Its thousands of the best managed perserve you could ever want. Some real heavy hitters...wink wink will and are buying into the acres. Their places will be sold as they will want to go head first into the new land. I hope to be a small neighbor in that big holding. Timing is everything, like hitting a baseball...wink wink.
 
Joey Rott said:
Went to an auction yesterday. A pretty good hunting spot of 160 acres with about 1/2 CRP (contract expiring in 1 year) and rest overgrown pasture. Went for 145K... purchased for farming.
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Coming to an auction near you.

letemgrow said:
I think they will go down farther than they are now. Land back at the 800-1200 range for recreational is what I'll predict in the next 2 years.
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I would say the low end of your prediction is spot on. Human nature and market conditions have pushed land prices far beyond where they should be and human nature and market conditions will push them far below where they should be. Land values are priced for perfection and the conditions are no where perfect.
 
I would say the low end of your prediction is spot on. Human nature and market conditions have pushed land prices far beyond where they should be and human nature and market conditions will push them far below where they should be. Land values are priced for perfection and the conditions are no where perfect
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I wish you were right...but things are different than the 1970-80's were.
The top 1% of this country has made 95% of the financial gains since 2008. How ? They are a lot smarter. Why is the stock market falling in recent weeks? The top 1% is cashing out of all-time highs and looking for other 'good deals'. They did the same thing in 2008-2009 when there was a slight dip in land prices, that's why land never fell that far. Once the top 1% perceives Iowa land as a good deal again, they'll buy and buy more. It won't be $800-1000 before they start buying.
 
When stock performance drops, some move to land/real estate.

Rising inflation and interest rates may slow the move a bit, but if people have cash.....
 
BJohnson said:
I have my "hopes" about where rec land values will go but not much confidence that I know what the hell I am talking about :D.

I do find it interesting when some of the high-profile guys start to list there tracts for sale though - what is that telling me ??

Example - just yesterday it appears that almost 1,000 acres hit the market NW of Lineville. Jay Gregory appears to be one seller and the other is just N of the Gregory land. Both are turn-key properties with high sticker prices. I looked at a small parcel in this immediate area in July and the agent felt it was one of the best neighborhoods in the state for whitetails. He was strongly encouraging me to consider the area for that reason but it would be a LONG drive for me. After looking at some of the cam images for these listings - I don't doubt what I was told.



Makes a guy ponder why two major hunting parcels like these would be hitting the market almost simulataneously?? Do they feel like it's a great time to sell (high point)?? Like I stated, I don't consider myself the smartest guy related to this topic but I do like to pay attention to those that I feel may have a better knowledge of the topic than me.

Good conversation - glad to see the topic back at the top.
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Anyone else notice how many pieces of the old Dajo cattle ranch have come back up for sale in the last two years. Maybe buying old cattle pasture isn't the best idea in the world. And then the realtor says"but its in Decatur county". Oh alright ill buy it. Lol
 
BigfootWillow.com said:
Some land is already not far off from that mark if it is not crop land. Here is an extreme example of land that was for sale for long time that was under that amount for obvious reasons.
http://www.landsofiowa.com/iowa/land-for-sale/120-acres-in-Muscatine-County-Iowa/id/1612499

Seems like a bunch of good things happened at once to keep pushing up the land prices by double digits every year, even if land prices dropped 50 percent in a short time frame, would still be more expensive than a few years ago.
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I don't want to be argumentative Willow, but I do not see the piece that you listed as a "comparable" with what I believe everyone else is referring to in this thread. "Rec ground", as commonly referenced here would mean some significant portion being in timber/brush with cover and habitat that would support deer and turkeys, etc.

That piece in Muscatine County, while it may have some deer on it, would not fit the definition of "rec ground" that most on this site are interested in. There are dozens of deer/turkey oriented "rec ground" pieces listed across Iowa now and many/most are listed north of $2000/acre.

I too would love to know the future as far as land prices, but I am in the camp that believes that it is not going to dip, or dip very much, and should be a good investment going forward for a variety of reasons. I would LOVE to be wrong here and possibly buy additional land at a cheap price some day in the future, but I don't think that is where things will go. Barring major economic calamity in the land, I think the prices today will likely be seen as a "floor" and will increase over time from here.
 
BJohnson said:
...

I do find it interesting when some of the high-profile guys start to list there tracts for sale though - what is that telling me ??

Example - just yesterday it appears that almost 1,000 acres hit the market NW of Lineville. Jay Gregory appears to be one seller and the other is just N of the Gregory land. Both are turn-key properties with high sticker prices. I looked at a small parcel in this immediate area in July and the agent felt it was one of the best neighborhoods in the state for whitetails. He was strongly encouraging me to consider the area for that reason but it would be a LONG drive for me. After looking at some of the cam images for these listings - I don't doubt what I was told.

...
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I do not know about the Gregory farm, but I am aware of one other "recognizable" farm being listed following the recent court ruling clarifying who qualifies as a non-resident. I think it is certainly possible that some higher profile places could be listed now that there is more definition as to who can get a buck tag every year. To the extend that this is true, I only see this impact lasting a relatively short period of time, say 6-12 months.

The other factor that I know is out there is that some are listing their place(s) in an effort to consolidate their holdings and/or get into a more well managed, or shall I say controlled, area. Neighbors, neighbors, neighbors... :D
 
Here's another thought on land prices. If laws change and out of state land owners are ever able to get land owner tags the rec ground prices will sky rocket. I think even n increase in non resident tags will make land more desirable for out of state owners. Not that I want this to happen!
 
Some of the marginal tillable/rec ground bought in the last few years I strongly feel is coming back up for sale because of cash flow reasons. People were buying ground with high crop insurance guarantees so they cash flowed well. As a new farm you are able to get county averages for the first year and then the 2nd year is the county average x 4 and your previous yield added together and divided by 5 and so on. So a typical rec farm is going to be below county average. As the crop prices have fallen and insurance guarantees dropping because of marginal tillable yields those farms no longer cash flow so some are cashing out IMO. I see ground dipping short term but give us a dry spring/summer and get ready again.
 
Everything has its limits including land. I truly believe the bubble is going to burst somewhere between now and 2016. I'm talking a demographic bubble and its already happening. As the baby boomer generation decides to cash out/in on everything, not just land, prices will drop. Any one who has studied fundamental economics knows that if supply outreaches demand prices fall. When the largest population (in terms of age) decides to cash out their investments and reign in their spending , prices will fall, no doubt about it. Y'all need to read the book "Demographic Cliff". Is all I'm going to say. I can't spout every thing the author says on here, but its all economic based research.
 
Bought my first piece of land in 1992 and I guess I'm missing it cause the black dirt keeps going skyward.
 
I own land, by my own sweat and my own blood I've worked and scratched to pay for it. But that doesn't mean I don't pay attention to economics and the way this country is headed!
 
There is always a segment of the population buying and selling. I'm not a baby boomer but I started purchasing land 20 plus years ago and will cash out one day. I wonder what my generation will be called when we're cashing out? There is not an endless supply of land, that's what makes it valuable, and eventually it changes hands. Non-typ is on the money, keep waiting and you will not own land.
 
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