When I bought my farm almost 20 years ago there were so many turkeys that it was at times insane. I remember taking a friend of mine and his then 12 or 13 year old son, along with my oldest and we sat in a blind where I knew some gobblers would come and when they started gobbling my friend looked over at me and was slack jawed, he had never heard that many gobbling birds that close to him in his life. Pretty soon there were 4 strutters in front of us and his son bagged his first ever turk. That nice memory was the norm back then, I could stand in different places on my place and hear 20 or more gobbling toms, now if you hear 2 or 3 that is good, some days none. Moments like that seem like 50 years ago now.
I suspect bobcats, at least at some level, as through the years I have found, and neighbors have also found, many carcasses of adult birds. I am sure that I lose some to nest predation, I am sure that wet springs hold the population down too...but neither of those things can explain the presence of a dead adult bird. Although several of the fine DNR employees will politely disagree with me and cite a study done in PA I think that showed little to no turkey presence in the stomach content of studied bobs. I feel as though that study was done in the fall, when there is food aplenty for predators and a turkey would be way down "The Easy Meal" list. FWIW, we have found the carcasses in late winter, spring and even a few in the summer while mowing. The precipitous decline of turks in our neighborhood does correlate almost precisely with the rise of bobcats in the area. (For the statisticians reading along I am aware that correlation is not the same as causation.
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Now then, in some of my ongoing conversations with certain DNR personnel I have learned that there may be some sort of virus(see link below) that could explain lower turkey numbers, as this is now understood to be pretty widespread. In fact, there is a study underway to help ascertain if this is what is hammering turkey populations and I would definitely participate in it...except that one has to be able to shoot a bird so as to get the leg to send in. Crap, a catch-22.
I have about as good a chance of bagging a zebra now as a tom.
So maybe the virus is getting them and the bobs are eating them...I don't know. But I know we have A LOT more bobs these days than ever before and A LOT fewer turks, so that is my lean.
https://www.iowadnr.gov/About-DNR/D...ed-to-participate-in-disease-monitoring-study