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NR Archery Odds

Zim

Zim

Active Member
I thought I saw a post on this not long ago, but an archive search pulled up nothing recent. I applied for a NR zone 5 archery tag with 3 points and trying to figure my odds. I thought I read someone claimed ~ 85% in 2015 or 2016. Anyone know? Put in a lot of time scouting public this March so hoping to cash in. Thanks.

The chart the IDNR publishes only tells me my odds are between 50% and 100%. They don't list the point pool sizes.
 
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What do you guys think odds are with 3 points? (Zone 5 Bow) I'm IA resident but my old man isn't. I was guessing 60% based on draw stats.
 
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Based on last years stats, somewhere less than 75%. 25% of the tags last year went to people with 4+ points.
 
PYBucks said:
Based on last years stats, somewhere less than 75%. 25% of the tags last year went to people with 4+ points.
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No that 25% doesn't matter. It's how many applied with 3 points. If only 423 applied with 3 points then the odds are 100%. I guess there's no way to know. I wonder why Iowa doesn't break that down like every other state does.
 
Since no one with 2 points drew, and 677 applicants didn't draw and no way to know how many of those had 3 points, I'm still thinking 60-70% chance with 3
 
Zim said:
No that 25% doesn't matter. It's how many applied with 3 points. If only 423 applied with 3 points then the odds are 100%. I guess there's no way to know. I wonder why Iowa doesn't break that down like every other state does.
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You're correct Zim.

Even if the DNR posted all the numbers there are guys like me that had two points last year and didn't apply cuz there was no chance of drawing. How many guys like me will apply this year?
 
Ya but that's the same in every other state but they give you the pool points which helps immensely plan your hunts. In this high tech age it's basically nothing for IT to post those.
 
I keep close track of zone 5 draw statistics. Last year according to the results of people I knew and stayed in contact with 67% of people that applied zone 5 archery drew with 3 points. The list of people with points won't help for a few reasons,
On the plus side the point system is never purged of people that may have built points 5 or more year ago but no longer apply. On the negative side the # of people that have 4-7 points is higher then it has ever been. What you are also seeing is now that we are a few years removed from EHD many point holders are now cashing in.
My prediction for this year is less than 50% draw with 3 points for zone 5 archery.Late muz will only be drawn with 1 or more points. The other general observation is none of the units I apply for out west about ,10 states, never get easier . Good luck to all and please understand that while Iowa is far from a perfect system, this system is still working and producing quality deer.
 
Thanks hans that's a good analysis. It won't be all bad if I don't draw because I had a horrible last 6 months at work thanks to some total idiots in Washington who are force feeding us their government funded unicorn amateur prematurely released software program waste of 22m dollars, which had me working 70+ hours/week and reduced my scouting time to just 6 days. I need to scout 3 or 4 more public properties I got targeted.

Would be nice this year though because I drew a late September Arizona elk tag and could likely stop in Iowa on my return drive to catch opening week. Anyway good luck to all in the draw.
 
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hans1 said:
I keep close track of zone 5 draw statistics. Last year according to the results of people I knew and stayed in contact with 67% of people that applied zone 5 archery drew with 3 points. The list of people with points won't help for a few reasons,
On the plus side the point system is never purged of people that may have built points 5 or more year ago but no longer apply. On the negative side the # of people that have 4-7 points is higher then it has ever been. What you are also seeing is now that we are a few years removed from EHD many point holders are now cashing in.
My prediction for this year is less than 50% draw with 3 points for zone 5 archery.Late muz will only be drawn with 1 or more points. The other general observation is none of the units I apply for out west about ,10 states, never get easier . Good luck to all and please understand that while Iowa is far from a perfect system, this system is still working and producing quality deer.
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I think you nailed it with the part of the comment that I bolded above. I have heard several people make reference to starting this year to go ahead and take the tag since we are now several years past the major EHD years. FWIW.
 
Wow that is a great hunt. Also with the moisture they have had and the late start date of the season best year in a while to draw. Good luck in AZ make sure to rake the whole season the 2nd week is the best. I will be there also helping some friends in 7west
 
Actually yes we dialed back our application last year hoping to draw this year due to the late dates. The moisture is an unexpected bonus. Still shocked we drew due to the NR draw system change. I expected a lot of the unit 9 dreamers to bail since their waits just doubled. 30 Years for an elk tag really? No thanks. That's insane. There were 466 guys in the two point pools ahead of us, and only 14 needed to drop out of 9 to eliminate our chance.........but they did not! Only about 10 did, which left us a 33% chance and we did it. 15 Years is long enough wait for me. I intend to scout and hunt hard to get a good hunt out of this.
 
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