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Reality of Land Buying 2000 vs Today

Couple things to consider:

1) Been roughly 20 years since interest rates were at current level. Guessing there were plenty of land buyers in the market then who thought that land prices were out of control, just like there are plenty who think the same thing now.

2) In my occupation as a land agent/realtor I talk on a regular basis to a lot of different landowners who are looking at potentially selling. I'm always interested to know when they acquired their land and for how much $. I talked to a landowner the other day that said they bought their land for $100/acre in the early 90's. You know how often I hear from them: "Boy this land just seemed so dirt cheap at that time that I had to buy it!" Almost never. Every successive generation of land buyers thinks land is way more expensive "than it used to be". Really the only time that calculus changes is when land takes a marked regressive shift in price/value because of broader economic headwinds. Hardly anyone in 2020 would have said that southern Iowa hunting land at $3,750/acre was "dirt cheap"....but now, in Summer of 2024? No one would *not* say that price was dirt cheap if they found good southern Iowa hunting land at that price right now! You'd think it had terrible neighbors, or a hog barn next door, surrounded by public land, or was in wrp if you found southern Iowa land at that price right now.

The key is not to look at the price of land per acre compared to 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago. It's to look at the price *adjusted for inflation*, because the price of land isn't the only thing that has skyrocketed, so have a lot of peoples wages and their standard of living. If you thought a $40k annual 1-person income was a decent income 10 years ago, chances are good that now you'd think it needs to be more like $50-$60k.
I see your point, but land is so expensive now hardly anyone can afford to buy any. Let's say you want to get a small 100 acre farm for recreation. The land will be approx $600,000 . Once you consider your loan payment, property taxes, and insurance, you are well over $4000 per month per payment. Cash renting a 30 acre field on that farm may pay for 1 month of your mortgage. How many people even with a high income can afford this? Land prices have far exceeded income increases for 99% of Americans. This whole scenario forces landowners to break farms up into small parcels to sell them which hurts everyone. It definitely hurts overall hunting in the area and also increases the issue of neighbor issues.
 
I see your point, but land is so expensive now hardly anyone can afford to buy any. Let's say you want to get a small 100 acre farm for recreation. The land will be approx $600,000 . Once you consider your loan payment, property taxes, and insurance, you are well over $4000 per month per payment. Cash renting a 30 acre field on that farm may pay for 1 month of your mortgage. How many people even with a high income can afford this? Land prices have far exceeded income increases for 99% of Americans. This whole scenario forces landowners to break farms up into small parcels to sell them which hurts everyone. It definitely hurts overall hunting in the area and also increases the issue of neighbor issues.
I see your point, but land is so expensive now hardly anyone can afford to buy any
I'm a realtor, just listed 3 properties in the last week and a half, 2 are under contract to a buyer and on the 3rd we're just ironing out final offer details with a buyer and it should be under contract too (2 in Iowa, 1 in Missouri). We didn't list them cheap, but we didn't list them way above the market either like many properties on the market right now in southern Iowa. Saying land is so expensive now "hardly anyone can afford to buy any" just isn't true. Has the market *changed* since interest rates skyrocketed? Yes. Are there more financed buyers on the sidelines right now in the recreational/hunting land market? Yes, just like there would be in any high-interest rate environment. Since rec/hunting land is a *discretionary* purchase, it will always be one of the first things put on the back burner when it comes time to tighten the belt a bit. But there are still plenty of buyers out there for quality land that is listed close to where the market value is at the time it's listed. If rates hadn't shot up I don't see any reason things wouldn't be just as brisk now as they were well into 2022.

Cash renting a 30 acre field on that farm may pay for 1 month of your mortgage.
Pretty sure it's been a long time since rec/hunting land would "cash flow" unless you just put down a crazy down payment. That is still the case. Have land value increases outrun commodity prices & crp rates? Yes, for the time being.

How many people even with a high income can afford this?
Plenty. I talk to lots of potential buyers who don't really care how much income there is on their hunting land as long as it's the right set-up in the right location at a price they're comfortable with. And you might be shocked just how many cash buyers I deal with. It still shocks me.

Land prices have far exceeded income increases for 99% of Americans.
This is a very broad statement. I'd love to see the numbers/stats that you believe back this up?

This whole scenario forces landowners to break farms up into small parcels to sell them which hurts everyone
There's a difference between being "forced to break farms up into small parcels to sell them", vs. doing so to maximize the value per acre in the sale price. It's not rocket science that a 300 acre farm is going to have a smaller pool of potential buyers than an 80 acre farm, because of the overall price tag lowering demand, and therefore the price per acre will be less on the larger farm. Same principal reason you're going to pay more per acre on a 30 than on an 80. If the 300 acre piece is a good farm and it is listed for a price close to the market value, there's a good chance it will still sell for a good price.
 
I'm a realtor, just listed 3 properties in the last week and a half, 2 are under contract to a buyer and on the 3rd we're just ironing out final offer details with a buyer and it should be under contract too (2 in Iowa, 1 in Missouri). We didn't list them cheap, but we didn't list them way above the market either like many properties on the market right now in southern Iowa. Saying land is so expensive now "hardly anyone can afford to buy any" just isn't true. Has the market *changed* since interest rates skyrocketed? Yes. Are there more financed buyers on the sidelines right now in the recreational/hunting land market? Yes, just like there would be in any high-interest rate environment. Since rec/hunting land is a *discretionary* purchase, it will always be one of the first things put on the back burner when it comes time to tighten the belt a bit. But there are still plenty of buyers out there for quality land that is listed close to where the market value is at the time it's listed. If rates hadn't shot up I don't see any reason things wouldn't be just as brisk now as they were well into 2022.

I'm not saying no one can buy them but it is much harder now than it was 3-5 years ago. I bought and sold a few farms and have stopped for now until I see what happens with the election and also which way land values trend. Did any of those 3 farms you are selling involve a 1031 exchange? That is a whole different game if it did..
 
Nope, no 1031's, all conventional purchases, mix of cash and financed buyers.

I think rather than saying it is much *harder now than it was 3-5 years ago* for most people to buy rec/hunting farms, I think it should maybe be restated as this: 3-5 years ago it was *much easier* for people to buy rec/hunting farms because interest rates were so ridiculously, unusually low that it just made money so cheap to borrow and brought a lot more buyers into the market. Now that the heady days of cheap financing have come to a screeching halt, it's harder to remember that the cheap interest rates market was really more of an aberration than a *normal* land market. I think things are reverting somewhat back to the mean/average now from what in all honesty had been a period of *unusually low* interest rates and therefore a land-buying spree that, not surprisingly, gave a shot in the arm to demand and brought with it higher prices, as one would expect. The interesting thing will be to see where things go from here in the next couple of years. Wish I had a crystal ball....
 
Long term investment. Money out there looking for stability. The amount of acres out there will never change. Guess they are in it for the long haul, willing to write off loses on their tax returns.


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Yep. Also, if you already own a ton of acreage, paid off, and purchased at long-ago prices then the current math matters less when an opportunity to buy a neighbor farm might only come once in a lifetime. In those cases, they don't mind overpaying for a piece because all told the average price per acre they've paid on land makes the math work.
 
The key is not to look at the price of land per acre compared to 5, 10, 15, 20 years ago. It's to look at the price *adjusted for inflation*, because the price of land isn't the only thing that has skyrocketed, so have a lot of peoples wages and their standard of living. If you thought a $40k annual 1-person income was a decent income 10 years ago, chances are good that now you'd think it needs to be more like $50-$60k.

The various calculations I ran earlier in this thread does exactly this and looks at it from multiple perspectives. When you adjust for the inflation of incomes, land prices and borrowing costs your purchasing power is about as low as it's been in the past 70+ years. The same holds true for cash buyers. Also, if you buy tillable, the ROI appears to be about as bad as it has historically been.

I do get why people have rarely felt land was cheap when they bought it. When someone commits a large chunk of their income to a land payment that'll probably never feel cheap whether they are buying 100 acres or 1,000 acres. The feeling is very subjective and largely based on the fact that pain is felt in the pocketbook when making such a large purchase. However, the fact that there were periods when tillable could cover mortgages after down payments and timber values could cover the cost of the land on some acreages suggests that it was indeed cheap by objective measures. Also, a new to the land market high-income earner could buy 100s of acres back then where as today that same high-income earner (with all inflation adjustments factored in) can maybe buy a 100-something acre today.

I do agree that in 2020 nobody would have said land was dirt cheap. In January 2020 it wasn't dirt cheap. It was fairly priced/perhaps a little underpriced based on the previous decade of land prices which I'd consider a better indicator to use when evaluating current market dynamics. The previous 8-9 years prices were relatively soft/flat which created perfect conditions for a large run when rates dropped and tons of cash was pumped into the economy.

All of this probably sounds like I'm sour on land. I'm not. If the only alternative to not buying today is blowing through cash or not investing it then I think it makes a lot of sense to just make the purchase and get in the game. But I do want to look at things objectively, and it does appear that at the moment inflation-adjusted valuations are out of whack. Short of some economic catastrophe I don't know that land prices will drop precipitously but I have to think there will be a more extended period of softening or sideways movement that could eventually bring things back in line. Another alternative is to look at markets outside Iowa for better valuations. History shows there are better times to buy than others and I have to think right now will not go down in history as one of those better times to buy in Iowa. Of course, if the holding period for a piece of land is 30+ years it won't matter much, might as well get started.
 
The various calculations I ran earlier in this thread does exactly this and looks at it from multiple perspectives. When you adjust for the inflation of incomes, land prices and borrowing costs your purchasing power is about as low as it's been in the past 70+ years. The same holds true for cash buyers. Also, if you buy tillable, the ROI appears to be about as bad as it has historically been.

I do get why people have rarely felt land was cheap when they bought it. When someone commits a large chunk of their income to a land payment that'll probably never feel cheap whether they are buying 100 acres or 1,000 acres. The feeling is very subjective and largely based on the fact that pain is felt in the pocketbook when making such a large purchase. However, the fact that there were periods when tillable could cover mortgages after down payments and timber values could cover the cost of the land on some acreages suggests that it was indeed cheap by objective measures. Also, a new to the land market high-income earner could buy 100s of acres back then where as today that same high-income earner (with all inflation adjustments factored in) can maybe buy a 100-something acre today.

I do agree that in 2020 nobody would have said land was dirt cheap. In January 2020 it wasn't dirt cheap. It was fairly priced/perhaps a little underpriced based on the previous decade of land prices which I'd consider a better indicator to use when evaluating current market dynamics. The previous 8-9 years prices were relatively soft/flat which created perfect conditions for a large run when rates dropped and tons of cash was pumped into the economy.

All of this probably sounds like I'm sour on land. I'm not. If the only alternative to not buying today is blowing through cash or not investing it then I think it makes a lot of sense to just make the purchase and get in the game. But I do want to look at things objectively, and it does appear that at the moment inflation-adjusted valuations are out of whack. Short of some economic catastrophe I don't know that land prices will drop precipitously but I have to think there will be a more extended period of softening or sideways movement that could eventually bring things back in line. Another alternative is to look at markets outside Iowa for better valuations. History shows there are better times to buy than others and I have to think right now will not go down in history as one of those better times to buy in Iowa. Of course, if the holding period for a piece of land is 30+ years it won't matter much, might as well get started.
I do agree with you generally that land in southern Iowa is "overpriced" relative to fundamentals, such as ROI, and there's no question that inflation is part of the equation. I think land started to get overpriced probably around late 2021. And yeah, I know, technically land is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But I don't think that changes the "fundamental" value. I think the same was true even in late 2021 and early 2022 when land was actually moving at a much faster clip *despite* high prices. I think the super low interest rates were jacking up the *impression* of fundamental value of southern Iowa land because money was cheap to borrow and people were just throwing cash around like crazy. But did the fundamental value of that land really change? I don't think so. Did $150/acre quality cash rent tillable ground that got $200/acre with corn at $7/bushel actually become *fundamentally* more valuable, or was it just a short-term fluctuation in perceived value because corn prices went up very high a couple years ago? I'm sure if corn stays near where it's at currently into next year there are going to be a number of lease farmers in southern Iowa talking to their landlords about dropping the rent.

The ROI situation has changed drastically over the last several decades for sure, but I really don't think you can just largely blame inflation. The extreme publicity and popularization of southern Iowa for trophy deer hunting (among both residents and non-residents) created *many times* the *demand* for land that there was 20, 30, 40 years ago, and what does a strong increase in demand for something always do? Raises prices. But there was no equal force that drove corn up in the same way to where it wasn't still subject to the whims of the commodities market and world supply, with all the inherent ups and downs.

I haven't looked at your calculations closely, but did you have a category of factor called the "Drury/Wensel/Kisky/Lakosky Factor"? Honestly they're probably more responsible than any other factor in why hunting/rec land in southern Iowa costs what it does now relative to 20+ years ago.
 
I do agree with you generally that land in southern Iowa is "overpriced" relative to fundamentals, such as ROI, and there's no question that inflation is part of the equation. I think land started to get overpriced probably around late 2021. And yeah, I know, technically land is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But I don't think that changes the "fundamental" value. I think the same was true even in late 2021 and early 2022 when land was actually moving at a much faster clip *despite* high prices. I think the super low interest rates were jacking up the *impression* of fundamental value of southern Iowa land because money was cheap to borrow and people were just throwing cash around like crazy. But did the fundamental value of that land really change? I don't think so. Did $150/acre quality cash rent tillable ground that got $200/acre with corn at $7/bushel actually become *fundamentally* more valuable, or was it just a short-term fluctuation in perceived value because corn prices went up very high a couple years ago? I'm sure if corn stays near where it's at currently into next year there are going to be a number of lease farmers in southern Iowa talking to their landlords about dropping the rent.

The ROI situation has changed drastically over the last several decades for sure, but I really don't think you can just largely blame inflation. The extreme publicity and popularization of southern Iowa for trophy deer hunting (among both residents and non-residents) created *many times* the *demand* for land that there was 20, 30, 40 years ago, and what does a strong increase in demand for something always do? Raises prices. But there was no equal force that drove corn up in the same way to where it wasn't still subject to the whims of the commodities market and world supply, with all the inherent ups and downs.

I haven't looked at your calculations closely, but did you have a category of factor called the "Drury/Wensel/Kisky/Lakosky Factor"? Honestly they're probably more responsible than any other factor in why hunting/rec land in southern Iowa costs what it does now relative to 20+ years ago.
Great assessments!
 
I do agree with you generally that land in southern Iowa is "overpriced" relative to fundamentals, such as ROI, and there's no question that inflation is part of the equation. I think land started to get overpriced probably around late 2021. And yeah, I know, technically land is worth what someone is willing to pay for it. But I don't think that changes the "fundamental" value. I think the same was true even in late 2021 and early 2022 when land was actually moving at a much faster clip *despite* high prices. I think the super low interest rates were jacking up the *impression* of fundamental value of southern Iowa land because money was cheap to borrow and people were just throwing cash around like crazy. But did the fundamental value of that land really change? I don't think so. Did $150/acre quality cash rent tillable ground that got $200/acre with corn at $7/bushel actually become *fundamentally* more valuable, or was it just a short-term fluctuation in perceived value because corn prices went up very high a couple years ago? I'm sure if corn stays near where it's at currently into next year there are going to be a number of lease farmers in southern Iowa talking to their landlords about dropping the rent.

The ROI situation has changed drastically over the last several decades for sure, but I really don't think you can just largely blame inflation. The extreme publicity and popularization of southern Iowa for trophy deer hunting (among both residents and non-residents) created *many times* the *demand* for land that there was 20, 30, 40 years ago, and what does a strong increase in demand for something always do? Raises prices. But there was no equal force that drove corn up in the same way to where it wasn't still subject to the whims of the commodities market and world supply, with all the inherent ups and downs.

I haven't looked at your calculations closely, but did you have a category of factor called the "Drury/Wensel/Kisky/Lakosky Factor"? Honestly they're probably more responsible than any other factor in why hunting/rec land in southern Iowa costs what it does now relative to 20+ years ago.
Rec ground is a sports car.

Luxury item that folks buy first and foremost for personal enjoyment
 
Just a few thoughts. The cost of land now reflects all the negatives that has been thrown at it. Higher interest rates, a bout with inflation, incomes that haven't caught up with that inflation, low commodity prices, Biden. Don't get that twisted, all of that has had a negative affect on land prices. I know that's not the perception. The next hurdle would be a recession. What if that doesn't come to be? What if the Fed actually puts together a soft landing? Most of the "makers" haven't even really felt the turbulence yet. Maybe, just maybe, we have created the new baseline for land at $5500-6000 an acre for Iowa Rec ground. Now, if the Fed backs off interest rates a bit to achieve that soft landing, incomes catch up with inflation, commodity prices rebound and Trump wins the election...land will also catch up with inflation. IMO you don't want to be at 7 or 8k per acre for Rec and not know what to do. If you're ready, buy it.
 
Just a few thoughts. The cost of land now reflects all the negatives that has been thrown at it. Higher interest rates, a bout with inflation, incomes that haven't caught up with that inflation, low commodity prices, Biden. Don't get that twisted, all of that has had a negative affect on land prices. I know that's not the perception. The next hurdle would be a recession. What if that doesn't come to be? What if the Fed actually puts together a soft landing? Most of the "makers" haven't even really felt the turbulence yet. Maybe, just maybe, we have created the new baseline for land at $5500-6000 an acre for Iowa Rec ground. Now, if the Fed backs off interest rates a bit to achieve that soft landing, incomes catch up with inflation, commodity prices rebound and Trump wins the election...land will also catch up with inflation. IMO you don't want to be at 7 or 8k per acre for Rec and not know what to do. If you're ready, buy it.
The crazy thing with markets are we definitely never know what's going to happen in the short-term but in the long term we know they are likely to go up. I think the scenario you painted might very well happen.

I definitely think short of something bad happening we can expect $5,500+ per acre to be about as good as it's going to get. Based on the Fed speech today it does sound like rates will indeed be dropping. This is very likely to cause an increase in buying activity. Whether it's short-term or long-term is hard to know.

I think it's possible for Rec ground to get to $7K - $8K per acre and still be a better deal than it is today. It all depends on what incomes and rates are in relation to that $7K - $8K.
 
Stole this from another forum. Seems fitting here…
42479ce26357d6382252228fa99148ff.jpg



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Stole this from another forum. Seems fitting here…
42479ce26357d6382252228fa99148ff.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The funny thing- I’ve said before that I missed “good” prices by about 5 years. When I graduated High School some pieces came up for sale but was in no position to even think about it. Now I’d give anything for those prices again
 
The funny thing- I’ve said before that I missed “good” prices by about 5 years. When I graduated High School some pieces came up for sale but was in no position to even think about it. Now I’d give anything for those prices again

After the 2008 crash, several pieces by us came up for auction. I was deployed and technology then wasn’t what it is now. I was unable to make it happen. Unfortunate.


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Report card time. This is where the ugly starts if it's going to. He'll either be elevated to economic God or just another ignorant government employee.:)
I don’t envy that job. It’s not an easy one to get right. He was definitely slow to act on inflation but I think he gave a good explanation in the speech on why he originally thought it’d be transitory. If he missed the landing here it’d likely be another case of being too slow vs too early.
 
I don’t envy that job. It’s not an easy one to get right. He was definitely slow to act on inflation but I think he gave a good explanation in the speech on why he originally thought it’d be transitory. If he missed the landing here it’d likely be another case of being too slow vs too early.
At least he has some bullets in his mag so they don't have to print a bunch of money. I guess i'd rather be too slow than to early and ignite inflation again. Like you said, tough to nail it.
 
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