Back in about 2004 I did a very unscientific "study" or data collection if you will from watching hunting videos. Essentially, I watched all the videos I had (4-5 years worth) and made a tally for each sighting or kill of what I thought was a 3 year old or older buck for hunts taking place in Iowa, Northern MO and I believe I also included IL. The results showed that the sightings and harvests increased up until November 9th and dropped off quite noticeably on the 10th so I concluded that lock down happened within a day or 2 of the 10th and planned my hunts accordingly.
It worked great for planning hunts for a few years but the last 4 or 5 the rut has seemed off to me and not on par with my "study". This year was great for me but the hot action was 3-5 days later than I expected. I wrote Alsheimer's moon theory off completely after 2003 but after the last few years I'm starting to think Alsheimer might be on to something.
Bottom line, I think I need to hunt from late Oct through gun season in MO and I'm sure to hit it good at some point. Haha...not going to happen!