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Land prices / insane!!!

My GUT….. I’m gonna GUESS we are going to see softening of hunting type Tracts. Think we hit the peak & on way to softening or a correction. Not sure how extreme. INTEREST RATES, rising costs & a bit of a shaky economy be main factors IMO.

If had to guess or GUT…. Ag land is strong for 6 more months. Possibly into next fall. After that- all bets are off. IMO.
So many factors & things going on behind scenes. Impossible to know them all or even predict correctly…. I could be totally wrong & so many events haven’t occurred yet that will determine course for rec or Ag ground. We do know interest is predicted up 3x & it’s up about 1%-ish from last year - sounds minor but that’s HUUUUGGGEE. IF IF IF it goes up another 1%…. That will slow things (as expected from rising interest).
Dunno how this ride ends. Every ride is some form of a roller coaster & doesn’t matter to most if you don’t need to get off in the middle of the ride ;). Dunno how wild this ride is but I think it’s gonna get interesting. Again- no one knows the future & to MOST - land prices don’t matter a bit. To some - it could sink a group of folks here or there & ripple into market …. Minor or major depending on how many.
IMO - a correction is needed for the health of the market. Time for Popcorn & watching this next year….
 
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Sligh1 said:
My GUT….. I’m gonna GUESS we are going to see softening of hunting type Tracts. Think we hit the peak & on way to softening or a correction. Not sure how extreme. INTEREST RATES, rising costs & a bit of a shaky economy be main factors IMO.

If had to guess or GUT…. Ag land is strong for 6 more months. Possibly into next fall. After that- all bets are off. IMO.
So many factors & things going on behind scenes. Impossible to know them all or even predict correctly…. I could be totally wrong & so many events haven’t occurred yet that will determine course for rec or Ag ground. We do know interest is predicted up 3x & it’s up about 1%-ish from last year - sounds minor but that’s HUUUUGGGEE. IF IF IF it goes up another 1% - yikes.
Dunno how this ride ends. Every ride is some form of a roller coaster & doesn’t matter to most if you don’t need to get off in the middle of the ride ;). Dunno how wild this ride is but I think it’s gonna get interesting. Again- no one knows the future & to MOST - land prices don’t matter a bit. To some - it could sink a group of folks here. IMO - a correction is needed for the health of the market. Time for Popcorn & watching this next year….
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I would gladly welcome a drop in the market. I hope it's coming.
 
I'm guessing the worst of it will happen after the midterms. Get your crystal ball out...
4500-5000 S&P
5-10% correction on land by the end of the year. All bets off if we get into it with Russia or China!
 
Thinkin Rut said:
I'm guessing the worst of it will happen after the midterms. Get your crystal ball out...
4500-5000 S&P
5-10% correction on land by the end of the year. All bets off if we get into it with Russia or China!
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S&P is already at 4500. Did you mean 3500-4000 (a 20% retraction)?
 
I predicted a 11% drop in the stock market last year-2021, but the flood of $$ has my prediction way off…

I think this year looks more like a 5-10% drop . It’s bound to happen.
 
Sure hope it happens. Finally at a solid point with enough saved up and invested to be able to make the jump and purchase something if the right piece would come up but these prices are ridiculous. I passed on few pieces the last couple years not convinced they were the "one" and now I'm kicking myself.
 
As long as you are not near retirement seeing the market drop is a good thing. Just three weeks into the year and my 401k is down thousands and thats perfectly fine with me, means i'm buying shares while they are on sale.
 
I read an article they'd need to raise rates to 6 percent to control inflation, but consensus is they are going to raise rates 4 times, but only a .25 each time, getting a whopping 1 percent higher after 4 rate increases...lol
I think consensus is going to be proven to be wrong in this case. Time will tell
 
deerdown said:
I read an article they'd need to raise rates to 6 percent to control inflation, but consensus is they are going to raise rates 4 times, but only a .25 each time, getting a whopping 1 percent higher after 4 rate increases...lol
I think consensus is going to be proven to be wrong in this case. Time will tell
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Watch what they do and not what they say they're going to do.:)
 
Prices still on rise. Corn & beans keep ticking up- FOR THE TIME BEING. Inputs & likely interest rates will chase rising prices. Was at an auction the other day in N iowa…. Dude That got it was financing most of it (nice talk with him & interesting). He priced it based on CURRENT profits he can make per acre. Which did make sense today. But I wonder how this plays for folks like him if Corn ever goes back to $3.50? Or beans $10. Still think it’s one of the best investments out there vs other things especially. If I was a “speculator” - I’d be waiting a year BUT if I could comfortably park $ & didn’t care if prices came down - I’d still buy. Every price on anything right now is just crazy. This can’t Continue with insane prices forever though. Fed is saying around 1% increase by 2023- that will impact things. If we ever see 2% - oh man!!!…. That’s very big deal for long list of reasons. This next 2 years will be a very interesting time to watch play out. I don’t have a crystal ball but sure is wild times.
 
Sligh1 said:
Dude That got it was financing most of it (nice talk with him & interesting). He priced it based on CURRENT profits he can make per acre. Which did make sense today.
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Ouch,

I hope it ends up well for him. I’d pencil it in to make a profit on $3 corn at the county average and NOT on higher commodity prices that won’t last.


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The problem is you can't normally buy the ground today if you based the price on $3 corn. At some point, you have to take a calculated risk if you're financing the ground, and assume 1 or more that prices will stay higher, yields will increase due to improved seed/farming practices, farmers will have to compete with crp prices, etc...
 
On the other hand...the Fed has created many tools to grow this gorilla of an economy which gives it many tools to slow it also, not just with interest rates. If they can slow it without killing it(soft landing), we may have a few years of stagnant prices before getting back to the normal 2-3% inflation while wages catch up with inflation. That might be a pipe dream at this point but still a possibility. I'm sure they would love to inflate their way out of this national debt a bit before raising interest rates on themselves...the tax payer.
 
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