Note - The OP(TDSwitchback) and I are next door neighbors, so our observations are basically identical in terms of the number, or lack thereof, of turkeys in our area over the past few years.
I am sure that the very heavy spring/summer rains that we have had over the past several years has negatively impacted nesting success. BUT, I know from my own observations that this is not the only thing going on.
We have, and our neighbors have too, found multiple adult turkey carcasses over the past few years. These finds are not limited to one season of the year either, we have found them in all seasons. Clearly, a wet nesting season cannot be killing adult turks throughout the whole year though, so wet springs in and of itself cannot be the only factor in my mind.
I have also found, without looking too hard I might add, multiple destroyed nests in the past several years. Coons, possums and skunks are very prevalent and all will wreck a nest right quick. We are trying to get these populations in check, but it seems almost like a futile effort.
Our coyote population is average and I personally suspect that coyotes are NOT what is throttling the population as through over two decades of turkey hunting I have had great turkey hunting on various farms with strong coyote populations also. I am not saying that a coyote won't kill a turkey, I just don't think they are geared to get enough of them though to noticeably reduce the turkey population.
I do suspect that bobcats DO kill adult turkeys and may be a sizable factor in limiting turkey populations. I wonder about the disease angle too, but I don't have any facts in that area. Given that we have found multiple adult carcasses, all cleaned to the bone I might add, over the past few years...maybe some disease is getting them and THEN something is eating them.
I am very curious if anyone has any real understanding of the potential disease angle.
