Here is where the number comes from:
Preliminary Harvest Estimates for the 2005 Deer Season
There were about 34,000 more deer licenses issued (38,000 more antlerless licenses but 4,000 fewer either sex licenses) for the 2005 deer season compared to 2004. The number of paid licenses increased by 22,400 and the number of landowner/tenant licenses increased by 12,000. If hunters have about the same success rate as last year this should result in an increase in the total harvest by about 17,000 deer and an increase in the number of does killed by 15,000 (Table 1).
Table 1. A comparison of license sales for 2004 and 2005 and the estimated deer kill if success rates stay they same.
2004 2005
Season Licenses Kill Licenses Kill *
Youth/Disabled 4,372 2,197 4,057 2,041
Archery 67,393 30,025 73,518 32,756
Early Muzzleloader 13,125 6,818 13,693 7,105
November Antlerless 16,841 10,105
Regular gun 201,479 124,163 202,099 123,550
Late Muzzleloader 29,237 13,550 30,718 14,032
Nonresident 8,452 3,987 8,824 4,152
Spec. hunts/Depred. 5,801 3,709 6,739 4,309
January Antlerless 23,313 10,063 31,096 13,551
Total 353,172 194,512 387,585 211,600
* - kill assumes success rates were the same as in 2004
(Sorry I can't get the darn columns to line up)
Based upon this expected harvest of 211,600 deer the simulations indicate deer numbers should decline by about 15 to 20% following this season and would be near the goal set by the department. If we continued this level of harvest next year the simulation indicates deer numbers would decline by about 30% to 35% after the 2007 deer season and would be far below the department’s goals. Based upon these expected results I would recommend reducing the number of antlerless deer we kill in 2006.
Simulations for each of the 20 wildlife management units will need to be run once we have the actual harvest estimates and the population survey data for each county. Based upon last years simulations and this years expected kill it is very likely that the antlerless license quotas will need to be reduced or eliminated in many counties in northern and central Iowa. I would also recommend that we remove these counties from the January antlerless season.
If deer survey numbers in eastern and southern Iowa have not declined as much as anticipated we will need to keep the antlerless license quotas the same to maintain an adequate kill. If the population survey numbers are down then the county antlelress quotas could be reduced and the January or November antlerless seasons could be eliminated. If the deer population surveys do not decrease then the January and November antlerless seasons will be needed in this part of the state to obtain an adequate antlerless harvest.
If you would like the complete report please email me at:
willie.suchy@dnr.state.ia.us