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Wow Just Wow....... Land Prices

In this area we can grow 150bu/ac oats, 100 bu/acre barley, 70-80bu/acre wheat, 55bu/acre canola, 60 bu/acre dry peas, 4t/acre hay. All spring sown. Further south they'll grow chickpeas, flax, lentils, durum, fall rye and winter wheat.
 
What are y’all’s current opinion of rec ground prices and forecast? I have a lead on a really nice piece of ground that may be coming up for sale and I am on the fence. The price will be on the upper end of the going rate and it won’t be any undervalued. I don’t mind paying max rate if prices hold long term but I don’t want to get hurt if things decline. Part of me is concerned about the NR party hunting change may result in reduced values.
 
What are y’all’s current opinion of rec ground prices and forecast? I have a lead on a really nice piece of ground that may be coming up for sale and I am on the fence. The price will be on the upper end of the going rate and it won’t be any undervalued. I don’t mind paying max rate if prices hold long term but I don’t want to get hurt if things decline. Part of me is concerned about the NR party hunting change may result in reduced values.
If you plan to hold it somewhat long term and can afford it, I say buy. If you are looking to try and flip it, I would not pay upper end pricing. I don't think prices are going down much, especially if the economy takes back off in the coming years
 
What are y’all’s current opinion of rec ground prices and forecast? I have a lead on a really nice piece of ground that may be coming up for sale and I am on the fence. The price will be on the upper end of the going rate and it won’t be any undervalued. I don’t mind paying max rate if prices hold long term but I don’t want to get hurt if things decline. Part of me is concerned about the NR party hunting change may result in reduced values.

If holding for 3-5 years minimum, I don't foresee getting hurt. If looking to flip, I don't see much room and margin for the next 2 years.
 
What are y’all’s current opinion of rec ground prices and forecast? I have a lead on a really nice piece of ground that may be coming up for sale and I am on the fence. The price will be on the upper end of the going rate and it won’t be any undervalued. I don’t mind paying max rate if prices hold long term but I don’t want to get hurt if things decline. Part of me is concerned about the NR party hunting change may result in reduced values.
I have the exact opposite train of thought. Anything that possibly gives non-resident landowners more rights/opportunities with their land will only increase appeal of that land and make prices rise. Also, if trump gets interest rates lowered, prices are rising as well.

Short term, Iowa saw a 6% decrease in prices statewide across all ground this past year and with commodities being in the crapper I would expect another decline this year, but long term, ground is always going to rise
 
I tend to agree with others responses to your question. Iowa saw a decrease in land prices last year. I believe those same fundamentals are still in place, being high interest rates, low grain prices, and past inflation which has squeezed the pocket books of many. I always try to put numbers to the equation. For example, if I paid $7000/a for 160a, and if this year it lost 5% of it's value, how would I feel about theoretically losing $350/a on 160a? Land usually is bought with a long term hold expected, and historically, it's worked out very well for those folks. Long term - the fundamentals for devaluation of the dollar are also still in play, and the amount of money currently in the system is not likely to get substantially smaller. You didn't say if it has any tillable acres, but I'm not sure our commodity markets are going to improve substantially either, although Trump could help that tremendously by holding China to a more balanced trade agreement. I do think the changes in regulations that make it more difficult for NR to get the tags they desire will impact prices. When the buyer pool decreases usually prices will as well. There's a hundred more factors to think about as well......Prediction - prices have momentum down and I think will continue to trend that way - land prices mostly lower next year or 2, then holding steady for a few years at the lower prices, over 5 year period, down 10% from today. Obviously, I'm just guessing and I'm usually wrong. I had some rec ground offered to me at below market prices just a couple weeks ago, I took a pass, but I already have ground that keeps me busy and to enjoy. If this is your first farm, and/or it's in an ideal location for you, all that plays into a decision only you can make.... I think most on this site would say - In 20 years, you won't regret having bought the ground.....but you have to remember, a LOT can, and will, happen in 20 years.... Lastly, I tell all my younger friends, you have to invest to get ahead - land, stock market historically have been solid choices....
 
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